Rasmussen (7/17, likely voters, 6/26 in parens):
Vernon Jones (“D”): 29 (30)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 59 (57)Jim Martin (D): 40 (39)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 51 (52)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
We’ve said all along that Vernon Jones would be a human train wreck of a Democratic nominee, and now we have some more numbers to back that up. Jones’ unfavorables are a sky-high 55% (compared to only 30% who view him favorably), while Martin has a 47-35 net favorability rating. The numbers really don’t lie: Jim Martin must win the state’s August 5th runoff.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-42 in the state (including leaners), an impressive showing considering how badly Georgia has been trending in the last couple of cycles.
The numbers for Martin are very encouraging. The Obama numbers, however, are nothing special. He was down by 10 in the last Ras poll and all other Georgia polls have had him even closer. I wish Barr were gaining a little more traction here.
This might be one of those races that SSP could make a impact.
Also I love how close this race is. It would really be something to take out Saxy. I don’t think it’s likely but it would be something.
Weren’t we all raving about Slattery when he had a 49-40 poll?
There has been almost no engagement in this race so far, and if this poll turns out to be not an outlier, Martin’s floor is pretty damn good. If Obama follows through on his Virginia-NorthCarolina-Georgia plan and really works in Georgia, then what?
Is it reasonable to think Obama could close Georgia to 52-48? If we assume that all of Obama’s bonus black turnout goes for Martin downballot, then Martin would only have to pick up 2 percent of the electorate, or 4% of McCain’s voters, to tie the race. In a well-run campaign, Martin should be able to pick up enough (white) McCain Democrats to do that.
That scenario assumes that Obama can get his own vote up to 48%, that Martin keeps basically all of it (not actually a valid assumption; there will be a few suburban “Obamacans” even in Georgia who vote GOP downballot), and that Martin can fundraise enough to run a good campaign that can take some white McCain voters away from Chambliss. All of those things are possible, but it is the base assumption, that Obama can hit 48%, that strikes me as the least likely.
A McCain collapse though would bring a lot of the Senate GOP down with him…
And it’s really good that we have Martin, Noriega, Slattery, Kleeb, Rice, and LaRocco in place in case that happens.
I can’t stress this point clearer.
I can already predict some crap like them paying some black guy to rabble-rouse and say that they should vote for the black man.
And I doubt that’s the only way they can play dirty. And I’m pretty sure we’ve all seen other dirty tricks like this in the past–swift-boating, night-before phone-bombing, voting machine tampering…